Apple's iPhone has long been a benchmark for innovation and market dominance in the dynamic smartphone industry. But based on the most recent supply chain analysis by well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the tech giant will have serious difficulties in 2024. This study offers a thorough examination of Kuo's findings and clarifies the causes of Apple's predicted drop in iPhone shipments.

Principal Results

* Predicted Drop in Shipments of iPhones: According to Ming-Chi Kuo's survey, Apple's 2024 iPhone shipments of critical upstream semiconductor parts are expected to decline, amounting to about 200 million units, or a projected 15% decrease from the previous year. Due to this decline, Apple will be among the top global mobile phone brands to face difficulties in 2024.

* Segmented Decline in iPhone 15 and 16 Series: According to Kuo, there will be a split decline in iPhone shipments in the first and second halves of 2024, with the iPhone 15 series and the upcoming iPhone 16 series experiencing year-over-year declines of between 10% and 15%. When compared to the iPhone 14 and 15 series shipments during the same time last year, this decrease makes sense.

* Structural Difficulties and Paradigm Shifts: Apple faces significant structural difficulties that are causing a decline in shipments in 2024. One significant factor mentioned by Kuo is the advent of a new paradigm in the design of high-end mobile phones. This change includes the incorporation of Generative AI (GenAI) and the growing inclination of high-end users toward foldable phones.

* Impact of GenAI and Huawei's Comeback: The research emphasizes that a new high-end mobile phone design paradigm, defined by foldable phones and GenAI, poses competition to Apple's long-standing lead in design innovation. Samsung has revised its Galaxy S24 series shipments upward by 5–10%, while Apple has revised down its iPhone 15 forecast, owing to higher-than-expected demand stemming from GenAI functions.

* Chinese Market Dynamics: According to Kuo, Apple's weekly shipments to China have significantly decreased, falling between 30 and 40% year over year. The primary factors contributing to this decline are the increasing preference for foldable phones among high-end users and the resurgence of Huawei in the market.

* Timetable for the GenAI Ecosystem and Design Modifications: Kuo anticipates a difficult environment and believes that Apple might wait until 2025 at the latest to make major design changes or introduce a more complete/differentiated GenAI ecosystem. The momentum of Apple's iPhone shipments and ecosystem expansion are predicted to be impacted by this delay.

In conclusion, the supply chain survey conducted by Ming-Chi Kuo presents an unfavourable image for Apple's iPhone shipments in 2024. The tech giant faces obstacles due to the convergence of structural challenges, competition from GenAI and foldable phones, and the resurgence of Huawei in the Chinese market. The smartphone landscape is about to undergo a radical change as the industry waits for Apple's response. This will have an impact on both consumers and market leaders.

[Source](https://medium.com/@mingchikuo/2024-iphone-shipments-likely-to-decline-significantly-by-about-15-yoy-due-to-structural-challenges-1cedb3ea3b85)